South West property asking
prices jumped by more than £950 to £268,500 in February according
to Rightmove, an increase of 0.4% from January and 5.6% higher than a
year ago. After the traditionally quiet months of January and
February, the property market has started to warm up, but talking to
some Gloucester Estate Agents, they are reporting their lowest ever
stocks of quality property for sale. However, asking prices have no
relation to what property sells for (ie their REAL value). Is the
issue a lack of supply?
Putting aside Gloucester’s
continual housing supply shortage, (we only built 4,598 properties in
the last decade but the population of Gloucester grew by 11,803),
this is now, according to some people, being exaggerated by an
increase in homes being owned by buy to let investors, who tend to be
buying a property as part of a long term pension plan and are more
likely to keep it for longer than an owner occupier would. I have
also seen unwillingness among homeowners looking to move, to put
their own property on
the market as they can't find few suitable properties to make it
worth their while going through the whole moving process.
Talking to some Gloucester
landlords only last week, I said that I believe this is the new norm
in the Gloucester property market, and is the consequence of over 35
years of not enough homes being built to meet the escalating growth
in household numbers, resulting in a lack of quality homes for sale
in many popular areas of Gloucester.
When one looks at the
historic data, in June 2008, there were 1,758 properties on the
market in Gloucester compared to today’s 728. Should we be worried?
Well in February 2010 there were only 803 properties for sale in
Gloucester but seven months later in September 2010, this had jumped
to 1352 properties, for it to drop to 602 properties in December
2013. The number of properties on the market is a cyclical thing in
Gloucester, it always has been and always will be. As we go into the
Spring of 2015, the number of new properties coming onto the market
will increase .
So are landlords to blame?
Well, on one side of the coin, yes they are. If they buy a property
to rent out, that means someone can’t buy it to live in. However,
it doesn’t matter if someone wants to live in a property if they
can’t afford the deposit and upkeep .. and the youngsters of
Gloucester still need a roof over their head. So on the other side of
the coin, if the Council aren’t building any properties and people
can’t afford the large deposit for the mortgage, then Gloucester
landlords have stepped in and bought property to rent out to them.
Gloucester landlords have bought 4,041 properties over the last
decade (investing approximately £822million buying those Gloucester
rental properties), meaning there were at the last count, 8,012
Gloucester properties being privately rented out to tenants.
Gloucester tenants are in fact getting a good deal as well, as
average rents in Gloucester are only 4.6% above where they were seven
years ago. That sounds like a win-win situation for everyone to me.
Stop blaming landlords and start building more properties in
Gloucester .. that is the only answer.
In
the meantime, the demand from Gloucester tenants for Gloucester
property is only set to rise over the coming years. If you want some
advice and opinion on where (or not) to buy, please email me on neil.west@belvoir.co.uk or call me on 01452 387334
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